tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-85805826275270448652024-03-13T04:34:07.876-07:00I trade bubblesMaking money grow by finding bubbles and shorting themDan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.comBlogger147125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-32999811768448532015-10-29T11:31:00.002-07:002015-10-29T11:31:28.098-07:00Now is a really good time to...Go long UGAZ or short DGAZ. Major percentages will be made on this trade.Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-44415660090964176272015-10-08T08:10:00.003-07:002015-10-08T08:12:01.563-07:00Touch of resistance on DRN<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbkMuQNAzd1CNDntN57KCsXfuamLoLslWxMawa6tuZJv19sa4ATdPD0Agl-erUj31lLLZ0kbdh7324sYouvJSo7TZYv9uSR-FnhvizLI42juxMbaJwB_kKnI5v81OAdknNZ0j_4uAbyUaq/s1600/tordrn.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="365" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbkMuQNAzd1CNDntN57KCsXfuamLoLslWxMawa6tuZJv19sa4ATdPD0Agl-erUj31lLLZ0kbdh7324sYouvJSo7TZYv9uSR-FnhvizLI42juxMbaJwB_kKnI5v81OAdknNZ0j_4uAbyUaq/s400/tordrn.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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I initiated a small (3.7% portfolio size) short position at 71.78.</div>
<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-69506740448247624282015-10-07T02:57:00.001-07:002015-10-07T02:57:36.198-07:00Sold all BRZU Biggest position now is short DGAZ. I don't see many other opportunites except for DGAZ which I think are highly valued here. Natural gas doesn't have much room to go down. But if it does I will add to the position. Liquidity is high.Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-257855755205447542015-09-23T14:33:00.002-07:002015-09-23T14:33:50.338-07:00BRZUStarted to go long BRZU. Will accumulate from here.Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-33347940450522542022015-08-29T03:24:00.000-07:002015-08-29T03:27:32.481-07:00A study of climbs in inverse leveraged ETFsI have been toying with the idea of going long reverse leveraged ETFs lately so I put in some hours studying them.<br />
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There are a couple different indicators to use for going long. The one I feel most comfortable with is a breakout pattern in combination with higher highs and higher lows. Let's look at the break out pattern first:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikFekeLkYK6RFz49RguRUamEuvxdAnbXaGYxidknOFLb_YSsiGUiw2cBdmG6VsiUr2sX6syBLjjQxKQpRc5VQs4kjbIhPdlAoowk9wd95sQL5qpffK0ZnaQoH5H_9eu6G35L2Nn5sZe3UT/s1600/pattern2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikFekeLkYK6RFz49RguRUamEuvxdAnbXaGYxidknOFLb_YSsiGUiw2cBdmG6VsiUr2sX6syBLjjQxKQpRc5VQs4kjbIhPdlAoowk9wd95sQL5qpffK0ZnaQoH5H_9eu6G35L2Nn5sZe3UT/s320/pattern2.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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So the pattern is some kind of channeled choppiness and a breakout from the top channel. Now the channel doesn't have to be parallel, it could be triangular as well, it is usually upwards sloping but not always. There always has to be a breakout from the top channel.</div>
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Let's look at some examples. Here are some upwards sloping trend channel breakouts:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTP08Jo-XgHtr3PLmv3xy-sbZtJjAqvIqXvV7FFy7b40HhQIn3-l0rn6yYP9VvybfqLeeQMk4a0YnHUsma0uZjuJBgpjE-qm3E-QD3ozj0vDxmS5ZyoXKC6ntUuduZwuvSIyDlon9M4j_s/s1600/bzq1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTP08Jo-XgHtr3PLmv3xy-sbZtJjAqvIqXvV7FFy7b40HhQIn3-l0rn6yYP9VvybfqLeeQMk4a0YnHUsma0uZjuJBgpjE-qm3E-QD3ozj0vDxmS5ZyoXKC6ntUuduZwuvSIyDlon9M4j_s/s400/bzq1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgui3ZoI54Xn84yVd2TOOIUVeRyzWmPvN699UBe-fcWTHzb5AzlSwDiYvmUT15LlmgISTn4DTHdiwYZiWmyME50l8-PQK3v0AJ3tI2v6pHOo51yi0ZySYjX3gv_MblCVOweDS3ztPxUe_xr/s1600/dust1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgui3ZoI54Xn84yVd2TOOIUVeRyzWmPvN699UBe-fcWTHzb5AzlSwDiYvmUT15LlmgISTn4DTHdiwYZiWmyME50l8-PQK3v0AJ3tI2v6pHOo51yi0ZySYjX3gv_MblCVOweDS3ztPxUe_xr/s400/dust1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2JR1CSzHRAhbYzSXzaE87Bmv63JkqBF3h3SFOYrC9vYFboBHa2BCpxo_XvCEYvCybOS0tMz0uQec8S60j8EXhz2JBvzzc4z2bBVcBmKmZTE0L_y617-OZLe-3l1WNVIfB9e01Sh8y-2rA/s1600/russ.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2JR1CSzHRAhbYzSXzaE87Bmv63JkqBF3h3SFOYrC9vYFboBHa2BCpxo_XvCEYvCybOS0tMz0uQec8S60j8EXhz2JBvzzc4z2bBVcBmKmZTE0L_y617-OZLe-3l1WNVIfB9e01Sh8y-2rA/s400/russ.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4BRuVm-h01XQLDZ-C5pqAV_JfoIUi87otpMFORRbfy9KMJcR3oVXh-C2Q1mAvdI7BUeNrUO6ax_iPPHciKXH9273hTMC6hdM1AUdoXIHbUD_5NuZYBWInJMyJA48FqlIO2GWfLmQVx-JA/s1600/skf2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4BRuVm-h01XQLDZ-C5pqAV_JfoIUi87otpMFORRbfy9KMJcR3oVXh-C2Q1mAvdI7BUeNrUO6ax_iPPHciKXH9273hTMC6hdM1AUdoXIHbUD_5NuZYBWInJMyJA48FqlIO2GWfLmQVx-JA/s400/skf2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJY-frmUv2bgA1QBzp6xqtsDQ9sRwFL_XVKqB0WzhlTtQvxy5FsIu0m6pGkNdlQkTRr7s2MPSaBq7zNlyLfHlF5cDefQa8PFfYsIT7pWSEM621uR6C6Eiyt63eJjN7gG9PKIsoGFqaBx9t/s1600/dwtic3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJY-frmUv2bgA1QBzp6xqtsDQ9sRwFL_XVKqB0WzhlTtQvxy5FsIu0m6pGkNdlQkTRr7s2MPSaBq7zNlyLfHlF5cDefQa8PFfYsIT7pWSEM621uR6C6Eiyt63eJjN7gG9PKIsoGFqaBx9t/s400/dwtic3.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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But the breakout can also happen from downwards sloping trend channels and also really steep upwards sloping trend channels:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkvFU1ITgmg3UjkaEJXq6fntlBHkyqspqIXB2sz9DNfXr4VGfRZC6zfF8jwxo2TLB4f-OBnq_B9QqQSuheCgqq3b6spRA08RE6mhHw7oFBoKKnUhyNxmopgPaBHoVONc1yueM2u6mUDRAX/s1600/dwtihalffirst.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkvFU1ITgmg3UjkaEJXq6fntlBHkyqspqIXB2sz9DNfXr4VGfRZC6zfF8jwxo2TLB4f-OBnq_B9QqQSuheCgqq3b6spRA08RE6mhHw7oFBoKKnUhyNxmopgPaBHoVONc1yueM2u6mUDRAX/s400/dwtihalffirst.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiju_z1Gf0O5xHAqPEixf9Z0wqayvrcCzGL0U3lx0M7XRMX08vsBJppKAVRkYAGJOHhJcER7AhEx19X-4YOFPqTVhKQQ2zfPH-yYrUora-w6XwdVaxkslI6ULe7NJo7huPSVVH-kL_KdEz/s1600/bzq2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiju_z1Gf0O5xHAqPEixf9Z0wqayvrcCzGL0U3lx0M7XRMX08vsBJppKAVRkYAGJOHhJcER7AhEx19X-4YOFPqTVhKQQ2zfPH-yYrUora-w6XwdVaxkslI6ULe7NJo7huPSVVH-kL_KdEz/s400/bzq2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiokHLmnkHyTtQG2qry0A6_TZsqcD3vNfPgRdbjo2dmDjmGX3fJO_pAzhEccKOqqf-iu7eFCTKPUgQH2WGLoGZvJekuMNLZlXXna0NK-6kknhScT-wF0-LL0w1_1gkQSMO50eTvYyvyCmhV/s1600/dslv2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiokHLmnkHyTtQG2qry0A6_TZsqcD3vNfPgRdbjo2dmDjmGX3fJO_pAzhEccKOqqf-iu7eFCTKPUgQH2WGLoGZvJekuMNLZlXXna0NK-6kknhScT-wF0-LL0w1_1gkQSMO50eTvYyvyCmhV/s400/dslv2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEnIH4RFhE4bfhEc_JQfF7SQkKwwue35PHr7HFlZDMHubbm8EcZKQGGvbhZvLNPAz7E1UbK5_txbDr8Gn1r26IEbDZcYeS8B1JOJpHo9vt7dG848fvasapajrX1Gouk0pOicwUUnGktjDD/s1600/edz1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEnIH4RFhE4bfhEc_JQfF7SQkKwwue35PHr7HFlZDMHubbm8EcZKQGGvbhZvLNPAz7E1UbK5_txbDr8Gn1r26IEbDZcYeS8B1JOJpHo9vt7dG848fvasapajrX1Gouk0pOicwUUnGktjDD/s400/edz1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8YhI72lnMAOlX6Kq0WPuHrq3coHmW7J532eM6xOVonG8e2qnS3c0JAz0IG56WVGpzxIvo_FLobdX-M-zzHTHf8R3zDJ4I7e1kmgo_nb5_I4ioGuMuFVJOBGyVrRePNxjUKTKiCxVjai3/s1600/skf1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="273" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8YhI72lnMAOlX6Kq0WPuHrq3coHmW7J532eM6xOVonG8e2qnS3c0JAz0IG56WVGpzxIvo_FLobdX-M-zzHTHf8R3zDJ4I7e1kmgo_nb5_I4ioGuMuFVJOBGyVrRePNxjUKTKiCxVjai3/s400/skf1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Here is the breakout pattern visible in a non inverse chart:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_5W6uHSBPMnlP3RqV0uOWAUUv5k4_RMoZNDqtSmjt8JDV4tur_om-hNorpCeflWbcGx52C_VOCGXM5-CMWVLdtsemwshcp0G87vSSjPX_C6sGQ355d1Wxo0tXVNWWnt9BXAlmg18gmuqD/s1600/agq2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_5W6uHSBPMnlP3RqV0uOWAUUv5k4_RMoZNDqtSmjt8JDV4tur_om-hNorpCeflWbcGx52C_VOCGXM5-CMWVLdtsemwshcp0G87vSSjPX_C6sGQ355d1Wxo0tXVNWWnt9BXAlmg18gmuqD/s400/agq2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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In order to get a fuller picture let's look at times when the pattern fails:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcqf2OFOaPNgFHCUjeVPO_ww0G7Bw8WfbcyPp_i1_NquPiWj-kBXbJMDT4QkIdXkYL-8W2HgYdY5WyGBpGSBIm90dLxSyW8v8Eu9-D7HxmZJk4gpbATCDjYD6dnkycpLe8Cuk8wT_gjoUe/s1600/agq1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="253" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcqf2OFOaPNgFHCUjeVPO_ww0G7Bw8WfbcyPp_i1_NquPiWj-kBXbJMDT4QkIdXkYL-8W2HgYdY5WyGBpGSBIm90dLxSyW8v8Eu9-D7HxmZJk4gpbATCDjYD6dnkycpLe8Cuk8wT_gjoUe/s400/agq1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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This is a clean fail. Could have still been profitable with a loose stop loss level.</div>
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This one was downsloping in a severe downtrend. Would have needed stop loss in order to avoid major loss.</div>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Also downtrend, but would have been hard to avoid. A stop loss would have triggered</span><br />
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<span style="text-align: justify;">First one could have been profitable depending on the stop loss level. Second one also but only with a loose stop loss. It would have been easy to loose money on both.</span><br />
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<span style="text-align: justify;">A small profit would have been made right away but would have needed to take a partial at the first top for that. In total a stop loss would have triggered. Unprofitable. </span></div>
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Guaranteed stop loss trigger</div>
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<span style="text-align: left;">Loose stop loss might have saved this one. Partial profit might have been taken in an early stage. (Unlikely) </span></div>
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Stop loss trigger. Breakout not clean.</div>
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Loose stop loss could save it. Breakout is red.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXEnYJy4oBUhXVxA6tBiawy5DpVZ9mPpZDaSzbs4UGUSYv0Bp8x-7Y9XCQwX2dEMXRBn9oHTV_Hpgx8ypj2ck4R_nfz9GwOTCuTicA-mm2itoeQsCkbuFvsH68cPOtoKId8jSem2xwflAh/s1600/edz2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXEnYJy4oBUhXVxA6tBiawy5DpVZ9mPpZDaSzbs4UGUSYv0Bp8x-7Y9XCQwX2dEMXRBn9oHTV_Hpgx8ypj2ck4R_nfz9GwOTCuTicA-mm2itoeQsCkbuFvsH68cPOtoKId8jSem2xwflAh/s400/edz2.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Stop loss trigger. Partial profit possible.</div>
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Stop loss trigger. Severe down trend.</div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;">This is an attempt to define a good stop loss level. This should not get stop lossed because the pullbacks are above the start of the pattern.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgddwFW-4kCXLwu-ZhKY0_CBFPlGbpyxXjnII0zqrtQSt1HcViay-BJywkjd2KCTX21RUw1G6xO3D_htPFcICVJQPMs3xWWuCfqGzBZW4RMzca_REOUVueZVxC98LxM83_LBoyDjGd5aFSg/s1600/russ1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="350" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgddwFW-4kCXLwu-ZhKY0_CBFPlGbpyxXjnII0zqrtQSt1HcViay-BJywkjd2KCTX21RUw1G6xO3D_htPFcICVJQPMs3xWWuCfqGzBZW4RMzca_REOUVueZVxC98LxM83_LBoyDjGd5aFSg/s400/russ1.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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A clear stop loss trigger.</div>
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So in conclusion I haven't decided if this pattern is something I want to play yet. I'll probably analyse climbs in non inverse leveraged ETFs a bit further first.</div>
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-71401044820195904452015-08-23T11:38:00.004-07:002015-08-23T11:38:45.825-07:00Oil and trading rules<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Since the last update oil went and shocked the world. I think the turn is close now. Unfortunately I got overcommited. the lesson for me is to just follow my trading rules. They are:</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">1. At least one of the following criterias must apply.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">A, Chart is in a blow off top</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">B, Chart is in a test of resistance</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">C, A very strong fundamental case for entry exists</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">2. Manage bet size. A 3X leveraged chart must be able to withstand 700% from bottom to top.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">3. When exiting shorts do not re-enter them when the chart goes back up. See point 1.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">4. Tests of resistance should be bet very carefully from low positions.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">5. Limit the total number of trades. Really good setups do not come that often.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">Can you believe it. I did not follow my own rules. Initially I identified a test of resistance (trading criteria 1 A) but I went in way too heavy early on. I added to positions very soon after the initial position without my trading criterias met for those additional entries. I totally violated rule number 3. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13.1999998092651px; line-height: 18.4799995422363px;">Even though i had rules I did all this. The problem is that trading takes place under long period of time. Dicipline gets lost during the way. I forgot why I had the rules and I even forgot I had them.</span></span></div>
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-86269907269368529322015-07-07T13:18:00.000-07:002015-07-07T13:18:26.504-07:00Volatile day for natural resourcesOil fell further so I added to short positions on DSLV. Silver did this:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkWhg8nquLtHUA065qqEy-lCjLPsHCcc-TlbIV111dww9xPRkx3N3oupp5Qo7WRTUo0SWhJILjnqwivMYNJYfy36F-sQcATXKVmt4ZaFa2Fsq6-UhQbIgvnB-g_dS4LvC3hp4LSdfnOAMo/s1600/silver.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkWhg8nquLtHUA065qqEy-lCjLPsHCcc-TlbIV111dww9xPRkx3N3oupp5Qo7WRTUo0SWhJILjnqwivMYNJYfy36F-sQcATXKVmt4ZaFa2Fsq6-UhQbIgvnB-g_dS4LvC3hp4LSdfnOAMo/s400/silver.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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So I added to positions there as well by going long AGQ. I sold a lot of other small positions to keep liquidity in check.</div>
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I think I'm in a good position in both silver and oil now but what could I have done better? Well I was too eager to add short positions when the charts started to climb. The reason is that for a long period of time nothing happened and then when there finally was some action it was hard too keep the patience. I thought I had learned enough about patience but apparently not. The result was that since I was already in for a fair share of the portfolio size it was hard to keep adding when the charts became more extreme. I did add but less then in the beginning. A better approach would of course have been to be in a position to add more in the later stages with the more extreme prices.</div>
Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-30802453746158088922015-07-06T12:13:00.002-07:002015-07-06T12:13:49.355-07:00I've been waiting for thisIt looks like a clear touch of resistance in DWTI. I went short 15% of the portfolio in DWTI today.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTa7e-yvkouG19pwu8pn1ZxDtcwytpagYlPRDuvMPRXEDyY0wib0CQX5jDKuBQzqyVje1l6SdsWVaZ3-NYywKRIdkG6eXa1ZrpCdOGOTxnXK6EAnN9T3Yl1SD1goQiNVce94ZxP9RRUMgX/s1600/oil.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTa7e-yvkouG19pwu8pn1ZxDtcwytpagYlPRDuvMPRXEDyY0wib0CQX5jDKuBQzqyVje1l6SdsWVaZ3-NYywKRIdkG6eXa1ZrpCdOGOTxnXK6EAnN9T3Yl1SD1goQiNVce94ZxP9RRUMgX/s400/oil.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-22374288792936548012015-06-05T02:04:00.004-07:002015-06-05T02:04:48.336-07:00RussiaRussia has fallen a lot lately. But looking at the RUSS chart it has a very clear resistance line. Will this line act as a magnet for the price line? Will the price of Russ reach all the way to touch the resistance line? If so then more bad news from Russia is needed because it is still a bit to climb to reach there. Could the charts not only predict the future of where the ETF price will go but also that more bad news involving Russia will come? Could the chart predict what is going to happen in reality? Because that trendline looks like it wants to be touched.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_cHbRdzKB1QGTN76KZE6jhQEli6meK5Xpsx3K8Utzho0jMzq3wAX2R1Lu72Znnle2e9h5osEdwIu-BvDSmCWtvmEGqAHxPGLLzgkoxp10mgSlW57eWwKAFBMJ2anSjqS9QPqCHNUzbHu/s1600/russ.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm_cHbRdzKB1QGTN76KZE6jhQEli6meK5Xpsx3K8Utzho0jMzq3wAX2R1Lu72Znnle2e9h5osEdwIu-BvDSmCWtvmEGqAHxPGLLzgkoxp10mgSlW57eWwKAFBMJ2anSjqS9QPqCHNUzbHu/s400/russ.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-55317157117731207762015-05-19T08:38:00.001-07:002015-05-19T08:38:14.174-07:00Some possible tests of resistance that might be reached soon<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOMyI-JB-xrmJvcoJnPeRsL_BTfioVtBi7XTz-pSrwqTwlI_dIzmKiuz9l6L_0pCNeqvRu88kbAyxeNHedkyYdsCV5zs0WpWzI09YESHyt2nGfArrtPdLAUOPqQQVnH7jnL79VUxqMpGLg/s1600/dslv.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOMyI-JB-xrmJvcoJnPeRsL_BTfioVtBi7XTz-pSrwqTwlI_dIzmKiuz9l6L_0pCNeqvRu88kbAyxeNHedkyYdsCV5zs0WpWzI09YESHyt2nGfArrtPdLAUOPqQQVnH7jnL79VUxqMpGLg/s400/dslv.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMPQrkHZUvRCI9dOuj8AoOUpujOLZIJoYqXXbV3SPfhCBil9wZTr_35yEUSzOlbbn2KXGO11Zc68H0J_DYsiXKfDQe0M_1hjgnYeIY0X6fnFk3-A4Lh8Kwx5xsVPA2TAvsCNZD1hyIN-QP/s1600/dwti.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMPQrkHZUvRCI9dOuj8AoOUpujOLZIJoYqXXbV3SPfhCBil9wZTr_35yEUSzOlbbn2KXGO11Zc68H0J_DYsiXKfDQe0M_1hjgnYeIY0X6fnFk3-A4Lh8Kwx5xsVPA2TAvsCNZD1hyIN-QP/s400/dwti.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiq15ETdnLffB8INQCTU1yMHtSc2coVdo4EXaefCPDpgjLWR5Sk76rZ3_vOfbNvv4GGs21agknZ9nEFzyYEzpXmi4RJ8VQsNB5eKliBjMVKhM6Yl5_rtUR-66jaMiTrpBu5dAEqZAvN-tr/s1600/xiv.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="272" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiq15ETdnLffB8INQCTU1yMHtSc2coVdo4EXaefCPDpgjLWR5Sk76rZ3_vOfbNvv4GGs21agknZ9nEFzyYEzpXmi4RJ8VQsNB5eKliBjMVKhM6Yl5_rtUR-66jaMiTrpBu5dAEqZAvN-tr/s400/xiv.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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Patience is needed...</div>
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<img height="400" src="http://images.sodahead.com/polls/0/0/3/5/0/1/4/8/3/154960202_Walking_slowly.jpeg" width="348" /></div>
<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-53917287379651117122015-05-11T12:46:00.001-07:002015-05-11T12:46:27.369-07:00Nothings going onThis is a test of patience. There are no real trading opportunities so liquidity is increasing in the portfolio, currently about 60%. Here are some potential candidates if the charts continues a bit:<br />
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DGAZ<br />
DWTI<br />
DSLV<br />
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TMV<br />
ERY<br />
SRS<br />
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GREK<br />
VNM<br />
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But right now it's not even close to a trade anywhere.<br />
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-82983879928763968962015-04-10T16:53:00.002-07:002015-04-10T16:53:43.480-07:00This has got to stop<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg54iBGvkLeyBtn3eo6T287RM0xeDGXSXE_vqMnyJotqXsRpzl7eRKVP7E7X3_TgfcuAaLL0VpxGOxAXCnIXU5TlKYOSDYnwyQjQXEVGhQRNExFoxrRx4uESfIIovZOzXfJng9Phb0hquIo/s1600/mistake.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg54iBGvkLeyBtn3eo6T287RM0xeDGXSXE_vqMnyJotqXsRpzl7eRKVP7E7X3_TgfcuAaLL0VpxGOxAXCnIXU5TlKYOSDYnwyQjQXEVGhQRNExFoxrRx4uESfIIovZOzXfJng9Phb0hquIo/s1600/mistake.png" height="320" width="317" /></a></div>
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Now that is a lie. I make the same mistake much more than that. And still I manage to be profitable. So what is the mistake that has got to stop? Being too early and not following my rules of trading which are to only enter a stock for one of three reasons: </div>
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1, The chart is in a blow off top.</div>
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2. The chart is in a test of resistance</div>
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3. Strong fundamentals</div>
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Since I am 95% about technical trading I rarely use #3 but I keep the option open.</div>
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So lets look at some recent examples. The following is a little toppy chart of YINN but for sure not a blow off top but the trigger for these mistakes are 1. Being highly liquid and wanting to find trades and 2. Lack of patience.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy9JkjLXGB8JUYXRskcHAeO-zD4d0PWDkaPlEzmxAUEP5PTsdOirgl_45e6xQ77fp3QukcmVuK3jelpMY5byZ4DP2spzckMpSh2JXAOeBnN818eogZaUDrcyAOtsBu6-Az-oMOD3XLU5cJ/s1600/yinnearliedsr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiy9JkjLXGB8JUYXRskcHAeO-zD4d0PWDkaPlEzmxAUEP5PTsdOirgl_45e6xQ77fp3QukcmVuK3jelpMY5byZ4DP2spzckMpSh2JXAOeBnN818eogZaUDrcyAOtsBu6-Az-oMOD3XLU5cJ/s1600/yinnearliedsr.png" height="347" width="400" /></a></div>
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So three days later it evolves to a pretty good top pattern but now I entered too early and my average is somewhere in the large gap up when it could have been close to the top, if this turns out to be the top. This was an extra bad decision since shorting Bull ETFs requires extra cation. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgopadEpQN3Nvr7AkczcCin4KFppTCusEWJmZ4uLHxwr7jz6tAb4LSPt_otBm2Yzb4AGn6CjTIB-6gdsHa-OiBQB6XcUp_y5A_mt9rV8rOrJrXmJT57i0U5IPixso6vdd4r8RSpuNwbi3sw/s1600/yinnearly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgopadEpQN3Nvr7AkczcCin4KFppTCusEWJmZ4uLHxwr7jz6tAb4LSPt_otBm2Yzb4AGn6CjTIB-6gdsHa-OiBQB6XcUp_y5A_mt9rV8rOrJrXmJT57i0U5IPixso6vdd4r8RSpuNwbi3sw/s1600/yinnearly.png" height="331" width="400" /></a></div>
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My shorting of XIV was even worse. Again the trigger is high liquidity and impatience. I'm not sure what I see here except for wishful thinking. There's no point of resistance being reached here and there's no top, only a decent advance since the last low but that should certainly not be enough for an entry.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS0o3Er4MR0oOnkrwwZ999EnjR3tfZEUowzZghBs4VlBP0PL2sMMgeS9edmCeYsdf-I2_fb_lUOuOV1kKmtAMMuwPgaW9eXnIEDCXv_P56GQFKGRZJiyVXXMKckw_9bEZUzSacRcod866t/s1600/xivearly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS0o3Er4MR0oOnkrwwZ999EnjR3tfZEUowzZghBs4VlBP0PL2sMMgeS9edmCeYsdf-I2_fb_lUOuOV1kKmtAMMuwPgaW9eXnIEDCXv_P56GQFKGRZJiyVXXMKckw_9bEZUzSacRcod866t/s1600/xivearly.png" height="400" width="371" /></a></div>
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A few days later it starts to look ok for a small entry.</div>
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The only thing I did right was that I kept the initial position size small. If I had shown more patience I would have gotten a better trade on both of these charts. It only took about three days to have better setups materialize. It would have been well worth the wait.<br />
<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-19688257418002082532015-03-20T05:59:00.004-07:002015-03-20T06:01:08.075-07:00Biotech top approaching<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
As can be seen on the chart below Biotech is ready to top. It looks like it will start today with a gap up above 185. This is a level where I start to accumulate shorts.</div>
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Here's my entire portfolio right now: Short DSLV, EUO, DGAZ, DWTI, Long NGE and YCS.Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-41126583545494845782015-03-08T13:45:00.002-07:002015-03-08T13:45:20.392-07:00A few chartsInverse Gold ETF is getting in to spiky territory.<br />
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And then offcourse so is silver...</div>
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Another one is EUO</div>
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It is still early but these charts demand close observation and a light accumulation may be started.</div>
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-87343285027524390562015-01-12T00:18:00.002-08:002015-01-13T13:06:39.990-08:00New checklist for tradingI'm stating some strict rules for entries that I have to check before taking a position.<br />
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1. At least one of the following criterias must apply.<br />
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A, Chart is in a blow off top<br />
B, Chart is in a test of resistance<br />
C, A very strong fundamental case for entry exists<br />
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2. Manage bet size. A 3X leveraged chart must be able to withstand 700% from bottom to top.<br />
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3. When exiting shorts do not re-enter them when the chart goes back up. See point 1.<br />
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4. Tests of resistance should be bet very carefully from low positions.<br />
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5. Limit the total number of trades. Really good setups do not come that often.<br />
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Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-57573578659942125402014-12-28T15:55:00.000-08:002014-12-28T15:55:03.094-08:00Gallery of tops<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-58793842975975386492014-12-18T11:42:00.003-08:002014-12-18T11:42:19.428-08:00RUSSRUSS just had a 700% climb and blow off top. Amazing stuff. I haven't played it nearly as well as I wanted but I didn't loose money and it is not over yet. But at the top a had still managed to blow a third of my account only to gain most of it back.<br />
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The lessons are two:<br />
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1. At extreme tops it's better to go long the long ETF. (Which I did)<br />
2. Do not short inverse ETFs if there is not a clear peak pattern. (Which I didn't)Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-26012595770956548962014-11-22T10:04:00.003-08:002014-11-22T10:04:47.414-08:00Nigeria<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Nigeria is not really taking off as I expected. Still I don't think we have to wait much longer. I see two main alternatives<br />
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(My analysis will be on the upside down chart since I analyze peaks. A crash is a peak upside down.) 1. Either we shoot higher buidling a second peak. The second peak gets momentum from the fallback of the previous peak. Or 2. The chart falls back right away. </div>
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I have a good degree of liquidity in the portfolio so if scenario 1 will happen it's an excellent opportunity to accumulate.</div>
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Things feel so easy lately and profits are coming steady. Maintaning a good position of liquidity is key to to good portfolio management. I always want to be in a position where if the price goes against me it's just a chance to accumulate and if it goes with me it's a profit and a chance to add liquidity to the portfolio.</div>
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-16068339978397045112014-11-08T03:11:00.003-08:002014-11-08T03:19:14.771-08:00Time to remind me of what the market is teaching me<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Always think of what you can loose. Not what you can win.<br />
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Do not act on dull markets, be patient.<br />
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When no opportunity exists, park money in ETF pairs but manage risk.<br />
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When no opportunity exists, raise liquidity<br />
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When no opportunity exists put in the work to look for charts that might have opportunity<br />
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A peak can climb very high for a long time, avoid accumulating on a short trade without signs that the top is near. Whatever the amount you are currently in it could double or triple unless the top is near.<br />
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When accumulating a position leave a small amount of that position for trading smaller movements and for taking risk of the table should the trade go against you.<br />
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Goin long is ultimatly more profitable, look for good entry points in markets with long term fundamental potential.<br />
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Think defensively and manage risk.<br />
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-32805673650961652872014-11-07T16:24:00.002-08:002014-11-07T16:24:55.163-08:00Huge day againA great day on the markets with some of my biggest one day profits so far. Miners, silver and gas.<br />
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Looking forward to see if Nigeria is up next.<br />
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-58738617001186257542014-11-06T15:29:00.003-08:002014-11-06T15:34:35.947-08:00Chaos is a ladder<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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It's been eventfull days. I prematurely declared victory on the silver, gold and miners play. First I got smacked back down and then today I got back up again. In order to minimize risk I sold off most of everything else I had in the portfolio. I took a lot of profit on the short DGAZ play which I've held for months and just when I needed some extra cash it turned well into the green. I now have a decent margin for losses should the gold trade turn against me again. But I think we've seen the worst for this time and I'm positioned for a good profit if the miners continue to climb back some.<br />
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So what's next? I'm already in Nigera ETF NGE thanks to this chart:<br />
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I turned it upside down just to make it prettier.</div>
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There's a stampede towards the exit going on so that's the cue to enter. It's funny how exponential charts loves company. First nothing happens for months and then this chart happens right after the gold chaos.<br />
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Let's end this post with some wisdoms from Littlefinger:<br />
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-88235611929777168162014-11-03T13:40:00.001-08:002014-11-03T13:46:06.164-08:00Dear readersI told you so! If you were reading this blog you would have had the opportunity to accumulate a very profitable position right at the right time. Five of my twelve ETF positions made over 10% today. All in all the portfolio made 5% on one single day. A fantasic result. I expect the miners to continue to advance, or at the very least I expect my short positions in the reverse leveraged mining ETFs to continue to be profitable.<br />
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Cheers!Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-22418427240048770222014-11-02T04:25:00.002-08:002014-11-02T04:25:33.396-08:00Full blown gold/silver crisatunity<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="344" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/a41eQIO07R4" width="459"></iframe><br />
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This post is going to have a lot of charts because of the ongoing events in the gold and silver market.<br />
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What's interesting about these charts are that they are recovering from previous peaky, volatile chart patterns and are building large spikes again. It is unusual for spikes to be this large so long after the main spikes. <br />
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The miners look like an incredible shorting opportunity from here.</div>
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If we look at the inverted USLV chart it looks like the main spike could build one day or two higher but after that it should be topping out.<br />
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This is one of those rare occasions where I will commit most of my portfolio. If the fall continues for one more day or two I will keep adding to the trade by allocation a few reserve resources that are currently elsewhere and by increasing the amount of longs in 3X ETFs and decreasing the amount of shorts in the inverse 3X ETFs.<br />
<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-91127468313700565592014-10-30T08:32:00.003-07:002014-10-30T08:32:54.326-07:00DUST and JDSTI started shorting them. I don't have time to post a chart right now. Will accumulate larger position from here should they keep going up.Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8580582627527044865.post-45452177523695648582014-10-14T02:16:00.001-07:002014-10-14T02:19:03.045-07:00Is the Yen forming a triangle again?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Dan http://www.blogger.com/profile/14228383423254118263noreply@blogger.com0