Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Exiting India ETF and exits in general

I write a lot about entering trades and not so much about exiting trades. That's because exiting is much harder and I haven't focused as much at theories for exits as I have for entrys. I regularly do blog posts when I enter trades and then do not bother to post when I exit. I'm not as sure about the exits and quite often I'm happy with getting some money out of the trade and then forget about it. But with the megaphone pattern (my favourite) there are some hints when it might be a good time to exit a position.

The megaphone pattern is a series of increasingly larger spikes, usually set on a concave supporting floor. Now please excuse the artistic quality of the illustration you are about to see.

Once the chart breaks the supporting floor it tends to look for a test of this floor from below, smash in to it and head further down. My preferable way to play the megaphone pattern is to short what looks to be a big spike. 

A typical example of this is the post i did August 28. On ordinary stocks and ETFs I search for the megaphone pattern by reversing charts and magnifying the daily movements 3X so the chart mimics the 3X daily leveraged ETFs where the megaphone pattern can be found frequently. So 20 days later the 3X reverse chart of the INP looks like this:

So the question for finding the right exit is where is the chart in relation to the support floor. 

Are we here?

Or rather here?

I would argue something close to the latter since the floor line is more concave and symmetric. So there is a high likelyhood the support floor has been broken and the latest spike has almost gone all the way down as it first had spiked up. There is still a high likelyhood that the symmetry of the spike will be completed and that it will move down to the same level as it started before moving up. There is also a high likelyhood that this chart will test the support floor sooner or later. With this in mind we have definetly entered the exiting zone of this ETF. While a few more percents might be made I took the money today and decided to exit INP with a decent profit. But keep in mind there might soon be a second chance to make a trade if there is a test of the support floor coming.

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