Thursday, December 18, 2014


RUSS just had a 700% climb and blow off top. Amazing stuff. I haven't played it nearly as well as I wanted but I didn't loose money and it is not over yet. But at the top a had still managed to blow a third of my account only to gain most of it back.

The lessons are two:

1. At extreme tops it's better to go long the long ETF. (Which I did)
2. Do not short inverse ETFs if there is not a clear peak pattern. (Which I didn't)

Saturday, November 22, 2014


Nigeria is not really taking off as I expected. Still I don't think we have to wait much longer. I see two main alternatives

(My analysis will be on the upside down chart since I analyze peaks. A crash is a peak upside down.) 1. Either we shoot higher buidling a second peak. The second peak gets momentum from the fallback of the previous peak. Or 2. The chart falls back right away. 

I have a good degree of liquidity in the portfolio so if scenario 1 will happen it's an excellent opportunity to accumulate.

Things feel so easy lately and profits are coming steady. Maintaning a good position of liquidity is key to to good portfolio management. I always want to be in a position where if the price goes against me it's just a chance to accumulate and if it goes with me it's a profit and a chance to add liquidity to the portfolio.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Time to remind me of what the market is teaching me

Always think of what you can loose. Not what you can win.

Do not act on dull markets, be patient.

When no opportunity exists, park money in ETF pairs but manage risk.

When no opportunity exists, raise liquidity

When no opportunity exists put in the work to look for charts that might have opportunity

A peak can climb very high for a long time, avoid accumulating on a short trade without signs that the top is near. Whatever the amount you are currently in it could double or triple unless the top is near.

When accumulating a position leave a small amount of that position for trading smaller movements and for taking risk of the table should the trade go against you.

Goin long is ultimatly more profitable, look for good entry points in markets with long term fundamental potential.

Think defensively and manage risk.

Friday, November 7, 2014

Huge day again

A great day on the markets with some of my biggest one day profits so far. Miners, silver and gas.

Looking forward to see if Nigeria is up next.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

Chaos is a ladder

It's been eventfull days. I prematurely declared victory on the silver, gold and miners play. First I got smacked back down and then today I got back up again. In order to minimize risk I sold off most of everything else I had in the portfolio. I took a lot of profit on the short DGAZ play which I've held for months and just when I needed some extra cash it turned well into the green. I now have a decent margin for losses should the gold trade turn against me again. But I think we've seen the worst for this time and I'm positioned for a good profit if the miners continue to climb back some.

So what's next? I'm already in Nigera ETF NGE thanks to this chart:

I turned it upside down just to make it prettier.

There's a stampede towards the exit going on so that's the cue to enter. It's funny how exponential charts loves company. First nothing happens for months and then this chart happens right after the gold chaos.

Let's end this post with some wisdoms from Littlefinger:

Monday, November 3, 2014

Dear readers

I told you so! If you were reading this blog you would have had the opportunity to accumulate a very profitable position right at the right time. Five of my twelve ETF positions made over 10% today. All in all the portfolio made 5% on one single day. A fantasic result. I expect the miners to continue to advance, or at the very least I expect my short positions in the reverse leveraged mining ETFs to continue to be profitable.


Sunday, November 2, 2014

Full blown gold/silver crisatunity

This post is going to have a lot of charts because of the ongoing events in the gold and silver market.

What's interesting about these charts are that they are recovering from previous peaky, volatile chart patterns and are building large spikes again. It is unusual for spikes to be this large so long after the main spikes.

The miners look like an incredible shorting opportunity from here.

If we look at the inverted USLV chart it looks like the main spike could build one day or two higher but after that it should be topping out.

This is one of those rare occasions where I will commit most of my portfolio. If the fall continues for one more day or two I will keep adding to the trade by allocation a few reserve resources that are currently elsewhere and by increasing the amount of longs in 3X ETFs and decreasing the amount of shorts in the inverse 3X ETFs.

Thursday, October 30, 2014


I started shorting them. I don't have time to post a chart right now. Will accumulate larger position from here should they keep going up.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014


The inverse Gold ETF DGLD is showing typical behaviour for volatile periods in inverse leveraged  ETFs. What comes after a period like this is a move significantly lower. A short position will be highly profitable when that happens. The only problem is to know when we are ready for that move lower. There are several possible trendlines that could act as a ceiling. Many times the last peak in a chain of peaks do not bounce of a trendline but fails before that level.

I'm already about 30% invested in DGLD and DSLV shorts.

Friday, August 29, 2014

New short: TMF

I'm not sure 20+ treasuries can continue to climb uninterupted for much longer. The chart is showing peaky behaviour and is worth a small short position.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Portfolio update and plans

My portfolio keeps climbing thanks to many small contributions like shorting DGAZ, shorting RUSS, shorting XIV.

I'm going to write down some thoughts about going forward, I have bull ideas, bear ideas and neutral ideas from the levels we are at today.

From the bear perspective:

I want to go short the parabola in Tech stocks. I will accumule TQQQ starting at 90, if it goes there.

I'm already long and plus on volatility through shorting XIV.

From the bull perspective:

I like to make more short term trades in something liquid and volatile like short SPXS or TZA using the 3 weeks 5 min chart.

I like to be long unloved regions like EGPT, ARGT, EWP, RSX, GREK and shorting RUSS which as a bonus also is highly volatile.

I want to be short inverse biotech through BIS but I need a peak to get a good entry level. The same with inverse junior miners JDST.

I want to be long marketability even with leverage but again I need a good entry point after a retracement. Current levels are risky. Available ETFs are RETL and UGE but they have bad liquidity.

I will short any leveraged inverse ETF that have signs of a peak in it's chart pattern.

From a more neutral perspective

I want to short both DGAZ and UGAZ due to their volatility.
I want to short yen but with a limited amount.
I want to short leveraged gold and silver, timed on peaks.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Is this the new normal?

This chart just keeps pushing back from every retracement. Hey let's see the monthly chart.
Does this look sustainable? No way. I'm not short yet but it is getting very close.

Friday, August 15, 2014

My method

Yeey, I got a new person answering my question if they've been on this blog before. :D Hi there, who ever you are!

It's been a year since I started with this blog and my trading method. I will post the year results soon. But if I had to guess I would say I made about 100% on the portfolio. A fantastic result I think!

I want to write a little more about my method. There hasn't been a lot of technical setups lately. I like to trade spikes (or bubbles) mostly in inverse leveraged ETFs. These ETFs tend to go down over time and if you start shorting them where a spike is chances are you have a decent entry point. The second part of my method is to manage bet size so that if I'm wrong and the trade goes against me I have enough total portfolio capital to wait for the trade to turn in my favour again. This can be risky. For instance the DUST EFT once climbed over 600% from bottom to top before it turned. Shorting 600% against you is hard to survive. But this is not a common occurance and I would have had to get in close to the bottom to be caught in that entire move. The third part of my method is to keep accumulating if the trade goes against me. Again this is risky as the position increases while it goes against me. Basically I have a method that will give me far above average gains in most markets but if there is something unexpected that happens, like a 600% climb in an inverse ETF, I might blow up the account.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

DGAZ Revisited

Natural gas creeped higher than expected. It's safe to say that the convex trendline didn't hold while the concave, which in the end goes vertical, can be drawn in a way that it will hold for almost any scenario. Regardless of this, natural gas has had a though battle between longs and shorts the last days, and I believe a downturn is close. The overall chart pattern still looks toppy. I am about 35% invested so it would be very profitable if it would start coming down from here.

Monday, July 21, 2014

Long time no see

Hello again non existant readers of this blog. Since I discovered practically no one reads this blogs except internet bots my motvation for posts have gone down some. But still my trading continues and it's fun to make posts once in a while. So let's see, above is the inverted UGAZ ETF. It has two types of sloped trendlines, both a convex and a concave and both are telling the same story, a reversal is near. Let's play this! I'm doing it by shorting DGAZ.