Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Is the market topping?

TNA has been one of the leaders of the long leveraged ETFs. It sure looks to me as a clear cut case of "touch of resistance". Similar charts are showing up in other long leveraged ETFs. It is risky to short long leveraged ETFs but the chart looks good enough for a try here. The risks are that the market doesn't care about the touch of resistance and just continues up. I don't think that will be the case here. The touch of resistance looks so clean and the last days of getting here is showing an exponential curve which is what I want to see in a scenario like this. The other risk is that the market tests the resistance line serveral times and this is only the first. That chance of that happening is large. Still, the chart should bounce down from here before it can test it a second time. There is also a third risk that the line drawn below is not the correct line and that it should actually be steeper which means the touch of resistance would happen at a higher position than below. But I think this is close enough to initiate a position.

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