New short: TMF

I'm not sure 20+ treasuries can continue to climb uninterupted for much longer. The chart is showing peaky behaviour and is worth a small short position.

Portfolio update and plans

My portfolio keeps climbing thanks to many small contributions like shorting DGAZ, shorting RUSS, shorting XIV.

I'm going to write down some thoughts about going forward, I have bull ideas, bear ideas and neutral ideas from the levels we are at today.

From the bear perspective:

I want to go short the parabola in Tech stocks. I will accumule TQQQ starting at 90, if it goes there.

I'm already long and plus on volatility through shorting XIV.

From the bull perspective:

I like to make more short term trades in something liquid and volatile like short SPXS or TZA using the 3 weeks 5 min chart.

I like to be long unloved regions like EGPT, ARGT, EWP, RSX, GREK and shorting RUSS which as a bonus also is highly volatile.

I want to be short inverse biotech through BIS but I need a peak to get a good entry level. The same with inverse junior miners JDST.

I want to be long marketability even with leverage but again I need a good entry point after a retracement. Current levels are risky. Available ETFs are RETL and UGE but they have bad liquidity.

I will short any leveraged inverse ETF that have signs of a peak in it's chart pattern.

From a more neutral perspective

I want to short both DGAZ and UGAZ due to their volatility.
I want to short yen but with a limited amount.
I want to short leveraged gold and silver, timed on peaks.

Is this the new normal?

This chart just keeps pushing back from every retracement. Hey let's see the monthly chart.

Does this look sustainable? No way. I'm not short yet but it is getting very close.

My method

Yeey, I got a new person answering my question if they've been on this blog before. :D Hi there, who ever you are!

It's been a year since I started with this blog and my trading method. I will post the year results soon. But if I had to guess I would say I made about 100% on the portfolio. A fantastic result I think!

I want to write a little more about my method. There hasn't been a lot of technical setups lately. I like to trade spikes (or bubbles) mostly in inverse leveraged ETFs. These ETFs tend to go down over time and if you start shorting them where a spike is chances are you have a decent entry point. The second part of my method is to manage bet size so that if I'm wrong and the trade goes against me I have enough total portfolio capital to wait for the trade to turn in my favour again. This can be risky. For instance the DUST EFT once climbed over 600% from bottom to top before it turned. Shorting 600% against you is hard to survive. But this is not a common occurance and I would have had to get in close to the bottom to be caught in that entire move. The third part of my method is to keep accumulating if the trade goes against me. Again this is risky as the position increases while it goes against me. Basically I have a method that will give me far above average gains in most markets but if there is something unexpected that happens, like a 600% climb in an inverse ETF, I might blow up the account.

My favourite spiky market 2014

Is beginning to spike again.

DGAZ Revisited

Natural gas creeped higher than expected. It's safe to say that the convex trendline didn't hold while the concave, which in the end goes vertical, can be drawn in a way that it will hold for almost any scenario. Regardless of this, natural gas has had a though battle between longs and shorts the last days, and I believe a downturn is close. The overall chart pattern still looks toppy. I am about 35% invested so it would be very profitable if it would start coming down from here.

Long time no see

Hello again non existant readers of this blog. Since I discovered practically no one reads this blogs except internet bots my motvation for posts have gone down some. But still my trading continues and it's fun to make posts once in a while. So let's see, above is the inverted UGAZ ETF. It has two types of sloped trendlines, both a convex and a concave and both are telling the same story, a reversal is near. Let's play this! I'm doing it by shorting DGAZ.

ERX, time to start shorting

It's always scary to go short leveraged longs in this frankenmarket but you got to start sometime. Since I am the opposite of a trend follower I initiate a small short position at this level, then wait and then accumulate some more if it goes against me. If it start to retrace right away then the profit will be moderate but still a profit.

BIB is next to get Tom Pettified

What goes up must go down, but in the case of BIB it's more of a bounce and now the time for a bounce back is closing in. A good level to retrace back to would be around 40% of the peak.

Ok but not super

Some sort of double top formation going on. The risk here is that a chart can gather strength after a dip. The positive is that an argument can be made for a touch of resistance going on. The climb of the second top is also smoothly exponential which is a good sign for shorting. I'd like to put a large bet since I don't have many things to play at the moment but the sensible thing is to put a small bet on this at this moment.

BOT of the day

Or week or year? It's just so big and round, it's just so out there. It must be one of those rappers girlfriends...

Now it's time

Update on VIX: I wrote earlier that it looks interesting but I'm not quite ready to short it yet. Well, now I am. As always when trading BOTs I'm hoping for an overshoot as the perfect time to move in. Actually I already started but only with a minor amount. It's also interesting to think what this implies for the general market. A sharp correction coming? I'm going to play this by shorting XIV (inverse VIX). If it goes against me I'll add UVXY (2X VIX).

New scanner

I've developed a new scanner that keeps track on down and up trending stocks for the last number of days on AMEX, Nasdaq and NYSE. It collects the top 200 that increased or decreased the most together with some other filtering criterias. When this simple result is displayed together with charts I can just visually scan these charts to see if any of them have an interesting climb or slope pattern.

Yesterday I shorted CXDC based on this scanner. Right now I find CUR interesting for a short.

Well aren't you a pretty little thing?

This is the reverse of VXX (S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN). I don't feel ready to short it just yet but it is definetely very close. I might do it later in the week. It's also worth noticing how profitable going long XIV (the daily inverse VIX) would have been the last two years.

India

India has been on a roar lately. The chart looks toppy, all analyses seem positive, so I'm shorting it. I started with SCIF on Friday and will continue with more and then some INDL on any further ascents.